A recent study revealed that storms are becoming stronger and more frequent near coastlines, compared to four decades ago. Notable examples include Ian in 2022 and Michael in 2018, with the latter rapidly intensifying into a Category 5 storm just before hitting the Florida panhandle. This devastating storm resulted in multiple fatalities and caused $25 billion worth of damage.
Hurricanes that rapidly gain strength before hitting land pose a significant danger to coastal communities. Evacuations planned for lower category storms may not be sufficient, putting many people at risk.
Forecasting rapid intensification has been challenging due to the need for multiple conditions to align and the difficulty in tracking them in real time. Gathering data from the core of the hurricane, where crucial information is located, is also notoriously difficult. However, advancements have been made in recent times.
The formation of a hurricane depends on the appropriate environmental factors. If the water temperature in the ocean below the hurricane is sufficiently warm, it will release a significant amount of energy through evaporation. This causes a decrease in air pressure, resulting in strong winds.
The hurricane’s strengthening process is aided by the presence of humid air that traps moisture and energy. Additionally, it’s power is sustained by low vertical wind shear, which means that the winds at higher altitudes are not very strong. As temperatures rise, hurricanes and storms are producing more rainfall, which leads to increased intensification and creates a feedback loop.
It is important to comprehend these subtle environmental factors in order to accurately predict and prepare for the more frequent occurrence of rapid intensification.
Studies suggest that in the coming years, populated areas will increasingly be at risk of being hit by hurricanes. The geographical range of these tropical cyclones is predicted to expand significantly, which could result in millions more people being affected by the destructive impact of these massive storms, particularly in terms of their rapid intensification.
Reference- National Geographic, BBC, NOAA website, Nature, NASA website, Weather.com